El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly modulates tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) at interannual time scales

The gap

Evidence profile

Sourced from the abstract and future-work section and stated research gap of the source papers, classified as general, drawn from work published between 2024 and 2026, spanning 5 journals. Those papers have been cited 37 times in total.

Supporting evidence — 7 representative gaps

• Rapid Changes in Southern Ocean Upper‐Water Temperature Linked to Shift of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Since the Last Glacial (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi

  Abstract The pattern and cause of upper‐water temperature (UWT) variations on millennial timescales in the Southern Ocean (SO) and the mechanism of their interaction with high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate remain unclear.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: abstract pattern cause upper water temperature variations millennial timescales southern ocean mechanism interaction high latitude
• Role of the Indian Ocean Wind‐Driven Dynamics in the Indonesian Throughflow Variability (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · cited 6× · doi

  The Pacific Ocean dynamics, dictated largely by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cannot fully explain these variations, and a quantitative understanding of the Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics involved in the ITF transport variability remains lacking.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: ocean dynamics pacific dictated largely southern oscillation enso cannot fully explain variations quantitative understanding indian
• Strengthened ENSO Amplitude Contributed to Regime Shift in the Hadley Circulation (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · cited 13× · doi

  Moreover, the abilities of the models to reproduce HC variability is subject to their ability to simulate ENSO variability, suggesting that the ENSO has become a more important modulator of the HC variability in recent decades, and additional research is warranted to evaluate future climate changes and potential effects on the HC.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: variability enso abilities models reproduce subject ability simulate suggesting become important modulator recent decades additional
• Summer Westerly Wind Intensification Weakens Southern Ocean Seasonal Cycle Under Global Warming (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · cited 4× · doi

  Abstract Since the 1950s, observations and climate models show an amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle in response to global warming over most of the global oceans except for the Southern Ocean (SO), however the cause remains poorly understood.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: global abstract observations climate models show amplification surface temperature seasonal cycle response warming oceans except
• Widening of Wind Stress Anomalies Amplifies ENSO in a Warming Climate (2024) · Journal of Climate · cited 6× · doi

  Abstract Climate change simulations generally indicate the strengthening of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability through the twenty-first century, yet a robust physical mechanism explaining this change across different models is still lacking, and the projections for ENSO amplitude exhibit a large spread.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: change enso abstract climate simulations generally indicate strengthening southern oscillation surface temperature variability twenty first
• Do our models capture the range of ENSO events? (2026) · Climate Dynamics · doi

  Further research is needed to understand the dynamics and physics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impact of resolution on model performance should be further investigated. The development of new models or improvements to existing ones could lead to better predictions.

  generalfuture-work sectionevidence 5/5
  Keywords: further research needed understand dynamics physics o-southern oscillation
• Seasonal dynamics of global marine heatwaves over the last four decades (2024) · Frontiers in Marine Science · cited 8× · doi

  The interseasonal variations in marine heatwaves remain unclear. The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on marine heatwaves is not well understood. The heat budget equation has not been fully analyzed to understand the interseasonal variations in marine heatwaves.

  generalstated research gapevidence 3/5
  Keywords: interseasonal variations marine heatwaves remain unclear impact o-southern

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