El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly modulates tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) at interannual time scales

The gap

Evidence profile

Sourced from the abstract and future-work section of the source papers, classified as general, drawn from work published between 2024 and 2026, spanning 4 journals. Those papers have been cited 41 times in total.

Supporting evidence — 8 representative gaps

• Rapid Changes in Southern Ocean Upper‐Water Temperature Linked to Shift of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies Since the Last Glacial (2026) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi

  Abstract The pattern and cause of upper‐water temperature (UWT) variations on millennial timescales in the Southern Ocean (SO) and the mechanism of their interaction with high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate remain unclear.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: abstract pattern cause upper water temperature variations millennial timescales southern ocean mechanism interaction high latitude
• Contrasting warming responses over different tropical ocean basins to localized radiative heating forcing (2026) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi

  Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms controlling the inter-basin differences in SST warming sensitivity. The development of climate models that can accurately capture the heterogeneous SST responses of tropical oceans to external forcing is a key area of future research.

  generalfuture-work sectionevidence 5/5
  Keywords: further research needed understand mechanisms controlling inter-basin differences
• Role of the Indian Ocean Wind‐Driven Dynamics in the Indonesian Throughflow Variability (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · cited 6× · doi

  The Pacific Ocean dynamics, dictated largely by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cannot fully explain these variations, and a quantitative understanding of the Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics involved in the ITF transport variability remains lacking.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: ocean dynamics pacific dictated largely southern oscillation enso cannot fully explain variations quantitative understanding indian
• Strengthened ENSO Amplitude Contributed to Regime Shift in the Hadley Circulation (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · cited 13× · doi

  Moreover, the abilities of the models to reproduce HC variability is subject to their ability to simulate ENSO variability, suggesting that the ENSO has become a more important modulator of the HC variability in recent decades, and additional research is warranted to evaluate future climate changes and potential effects on the HC.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: variability enso abilities models reproduce subject ability simulate suggesting become important modulator recent decades additional
• Summer Westerly Wind Intensification Weakens Southern Ocean Seasonal Cycle Under Global Warming (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · cited 4× · doi

  Abstract Since the 1950s, observations and climate models show an amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle in response to global warming over most of the global oceans except for the Southern Ocean (SO), however the cause remains poorly understood.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: global abstract observations climate models show amplification surface temperature seasonal cycle response warming oceans except
• Distinct intraseasonal periodicity of Siberian high as modulated by ENSO: dominance of Madden–Julian oscillation (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · cited 6× · doi

  Abstract While previous studies have demonstrated that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact global climate systems on the intraseasonal timescale, how ENSO affects the intraseasonal variability of the Siberian high (SH) still remains unclear.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: enso intraseasonal abstract previous southern oscillation impact global climate systems timescale affects variability siberian high
• Potential impact of wintertime Arctic forcing on the subsequent sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · cited 2× · doi

  Abstract Despite extratropical forcing being recognized as an important factor that can modulate El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) properties on the interannual time scale, little is known about whether and how Arctic forcing changes the tropical sea surface temperature (SST).

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: forcing abstract despite extratropical recognized important factor modulate southern oscillation enso properties interannual time scale
• Distinct Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño Influence on Antarctic Surface Mass Balance (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · cited 10× · doi

  Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation causes anomalous atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation across southern polar latitudes, but the influence of Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño events on Antarctic surface mass balance and snow accumulation has not yet been assessed.

  generalabstractevidence 4/5
  Keywords: southern abstract oscillation causes anomalous atmospheric circulation temperature precipitation across polar latitudes influence central eastern

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