The lack of empirical links between land-use changes

The gap

Evidence profile

Stated in the limitations and recommendations and cells limitations and cells research gap sections of the source papers, classified as general, spanning 3 journals.

Supporting evidence — 4 representative gaps

• Assessment of urban surface runoff potential in response to land use land cover changes in the Federal Capital City, Abuja, Nigeria (2026) · Discover Cities · doi

  While this study provides evidence linking LULC changes to surface runoff intensifica- tion in the FCC, several limitations should be acknowledged: 1. The study assumed spatially uniform rainfall distribution due to limited access to a dense network of ground-based rain gauges within the FCC. Only three NIMET stations provided long-term records, requiring IDW interpolation that may smooth localized convective storm cells common in tropical climates. 2. Landsat 30 m resolution may fail to capture fine-scale urban features (< 30 m) such as individual drainage channels, permeable pavements, small detention ponds, or informal settlement patterns that influence localized runoff. Odiji et al. Discover Cities (2026) 3:103 Page 23 of 26 3. The FCC lacks stream gauging stations for direct calibration of the SCS-CN model. Validation relied on proxy data (SAR flood extents, field-observed flood points) rather than direct runoff measurements. 4. The study did not incorporate drainage network capacity, maintenance frequency, building density, or population distribution—factors that mediate actual flood impacts even when runoff is accurately modeled. 5. Long-term rainfall trends (1990–2020) were assumed stationary. Future work should integrate downscaled climate projections (RCP/SSP scenarios) to assess non- stationary runoff responses. Despite these limitations, the methodology remains sound, and the findings are con- sistent with other urban hydrology studies globally. The integration of multi-temporal remote sensing data with GIS-based hydrological modeling provides a useful framework for assessing surface runoff in data-scarce environments like Abuja. The study clearly demonstrates that LULC change particularly the expansion of built- up areas and concurrent loss of vegetated surfaces is a major driver of increased surface runoff in Abuja. These changes are occurring in a context of limited drainage capac- ity and hydrologically unfavorable soils, compounding flood risks across the city. The results offer valuable guidance for land use planning and urban infrastructure design, emphasizing the urgent need for integrating green infrastructure, strengthening policy enforcement on urban development, and enhancing stormwater management systems. As urbanization accelerates, such evidence-based planning tools will be critical for fos- tering resilience and achieving sustainable urban futures. Additionally, they reinforce the need for integrated urban planning frameworks that incorporate green infrastructure, enforce zoning regulations, and prioritize natural landscape preservation. These mea- sures are essential for mitigating flood hazards and achieving the sustainability targets outlined in SDG 11: making cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable.

  generalstated in limitationsevidence 5/5
  Keywords: runoff urban flood surface based drainage planning infrastructure provides evidence lulc changes limitations assumed rainfall
• Assessment of Urbanisation Extent and Its Influence on Stormwater Runoff in Kigali City (2026) · East African Journal of Environment and Natural Resources · doi

  Although Kigali City has made good progress in addressing stormwater challenges, a more coordinated and spatially targeted approach is required to effectively manage runoff. The following recommendations are suggested: • Develop and adopt a GIS technique to monitor urban expansion and model runoff. • Promote green infrastructure as Permeable pavements, Rain gardens, Green roofs, infiltration drainage, vegetated filter systems, and rain gardens. such • Improve drainage systems in high-risk areas. • Encourage rainwater harvesting. • Strengthen land use planning policies. Chung, E. S. (2010). Application of the SCS-CN method for runoff estimation in urban areas. (15, Ed.) Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 6, 456–464. Chung, W. H., Wang, I. T., & Wang, R. Y. (2010). Theory-Based SCS-CN Method and Its of Hydrologic Applications. Engineering, 15, 1045-1058.

  generalstated in recommendationsevidence 5/5
  Keywords: runoff urban green rain gardens drainage systems areas chung hydrologic engineering wang kigali city made
• Hydrological modelling in a data-scarce semi-arid catchment: Assessing urbanisation impacts on runoff in Bouskoura, Morocco (2026) · Journal of Water and Land Development · doi

  The absence of observed discharge data prevented the calibration and validation of the hydrological model. - The projection of future CN values was based on a linear relationship with population growth. - The model does not explicitly consider several parameters that can significantly affect runoff, such as soil compaction and slope variability.

  generalstated in cells limitationsevidence 5/5
  Keywords: absence observed discharge data prevented calibration validation hydrological
• Assessment of urban surface runoff potential in response to land use land cover changes in the Federal Capital City, Abuja, Nigeria (2026) · Discover Cities · doi

  The lack of empirical links between land-use changes and runoff dynamics. - The lack of district-level, multi-decadal runoff vulnerability assessments for the FCC.

  generalstated in cells research gapevidence 5/5
  Keywords: lack empirical links between land-use changes runoff dynamics

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