Ecosystem impacts of altered fire regimes

The gap

Evidence profile

Sourced from the future work and abstract and stated research gap and future-work section of the source papers, classified as general, drawn from work published between 2019 and 2026, spanning 3 journals. Those papers have been cited 250 times in total.

Supporting evidence — 4 representative gaps

• Contemporary management has altered the fire regime of a large protected area: evaluating management outcomes and future directions (2026) · Fire Ecology · doi

  Kakadu’s fire regime has clearly changed in response to contemporary fire management, with some achievement of the KNPMP performance indicators inferred by our fire metrics. However, these achievements do not yet translate to demonstrated benefits for flora and fauna. This case study highlights a fundamental gap in Kakadu’s fire management planning, as there is limited ability to interpret what these changes mean for biodiversity or to set targets for biodiversity in the future. There has likely been some effect of the altered fire regime on Kakadu’s plants and animals (Charles et  al. 2025), and determining the nature of that effect is a current research priority for Kakadu’s Traditional Owners (Cooper et al. 2024). Indeed, the KNPMP lists an objective to “maintain the condition of the park’s natural values, and support the recovery of threatened species”, with the outcome of this being that “the abundance of significant species is increased (where possible and appropriate) or maintained” (Australian Government 2016). Monitoring changes in species populations can be difficult, requiring sound scientific methods (Lindenmayer and Likens 2010). In Kakadu, the “Three Parks Savanna Fireeffects Plot Network” is a monitoring program  that has been ongoing since 1980 to measure the impacts of fire regimes on flora and fauna populations spatially and temporally (Edwards et  al. 2003; Russell-Smith et  al. 2014). Still, outside of this there are significant gaps in contemporary monitoring of flora and fauna  in the region (Preece and Fitzsimons 2022). Such programs can also be logistically challenging and costly across a large protected area like Kakadu. Harnessing complementary approaches such as habitat suitability models (Haslem et  al. 2024) could assist with targeting direct monitoring and identifying areas most at risk of negative fire impacts. Identifying important areas of biodiversity and bush tucker and protecting them from unsuitable fire regimes is a priority of Kakadu park managers (Australian Government 2016). Subsequent targeted monitoring could assist with validating models and improving adaptive management in the future (Anderson et al. 2016). Optimized population monitoring in Kakadu will be critical to understand how contemporary fire regime changes have influenced biodiversity, and how fire should be managed to conserve it (Lindenmayer et al. 2025). Sufficient resources should be directed into making informed fire management decisions for Australia’s tropical savannas (Murphy et al. 2025). Future fire management should consider how interacting threats such as climate change, invasive species, and altered vegetation structure compound fire effects.

  generalfuture workevidence 5/5
  Keywords: fire kakadu monitoring management biodiversity regime flora fauna there changes future species contemporary knpmp effect
• The species diversity × fire severity relationship is hump‐shaped in semiarid yellow pine and mixed conifer forests (2019) · Ecosphere · cited 66× · doi

  While ecosystem impacts of altered fire regimes have been examined in the literature, little is known of the effects of changing fire regimes on forest understory plant diversity even though understory taxa comprise the vast majority of forest plant species and play vital roles in overall ecosystem function.

  generalabstractevidence 5/5
  Keywords: ecosystem fire regimes forest understory plant impacts altered examined literature little known effects changing diversity
• Biodiversity impacts of the 2019–2020 Australian megafires (2024) · Nature · cited 92× · doi

  There is a need to understand how interactions among fire-regime components, drought, and land tenure shape wildfire impacts. The study highlights the importance of considering fire frequency, drought, and land tenure in mitigating the impacts of megafires on biodiversity. Further research is needed to quantify the long-term effects of megafires on biodiversity.

  generalstated research gapevidence 4/5
  Keywords: there need understand interactions among fire-regime components drought
• Biodiversity impacts of the 2019–2020 Australian megafires (2024) · Nature · cited 92× · doi

  Further research is needed to quantify the long-term effects of megafires on biodiversity. Studies should investigate the mechanisms underlying fire responses, including species interactions, dispersal, and extent of in situ survival. Research should also focus on developing predictive models of plant and animal responses to fire.

  generalfuture-work sectionevidence 4/5
  Keywords: further research needed quantify long-term effects megafires biodiversity

Questions about this gap