Maize is a cornerstone of global food security, yet the effects of interannual climate variability on its yield

The gap

Evidence profile

Sourced from the recommendations and future-work section and limitations section and abstract of the source papers, classified as general, drawn from work published between 2024 and 2026, spanning 6 journals. Those papers have been cited 18 times in total.

Supporting evidence — 6 representative gaps

• Heterogeneous mitigation effects of adaptation initiatives on grain yield losses from extreme temperatures in China: implications for grain resilience and food security (2025) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · cited 3× · doi

  6.1 Research conclusions Drawing on panel data from China’s major corn-producing this study systematically provinces between 2000 and 2023, evaluates the effects of extreme high and low temperature events on corn yields and reveals the potential threat of climate extremes to food security. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Extreme high temperatures significantly suppress corn yields. Whether in national-level regressions or in regional and temporal sub-sample analyses, the number of extreme high temperature days exhibits a consistently significant and negative impact on corn yields. This effect is particularly pronounced in the main summer maize-growing areas in northern China, suggesting that heat stress has become a key constraint to stable grain production and supply. (2) The effect of extreme low temperatures varies regionally. Corn yields in southern China are more sensitive to low temperature stress, mainly because spring-sown maize is vulnerable to late frosts during the seedling or jointing stages. In contrast, in northern China where maize is typically sown in summer, extreme cold usually occurs before sowing and thus exerts a relatively limited impact on yield. (3) The effects of extreme temperatures have intensified over time. In recent years, the adverse impacts of extreme heat on corn yields have grown more pronounced, reflecting the cumulative risk posed by climate change and the vulnerabilities within existing agricultural systems. Meanwhile, the negative effects of extreme low temperatures, which were significant during 2000- 2010, appear to have weakened in recent years, indicating an improvement in farmers’ adaptive capacity. (4) Agricultural insurance and protected agriculture demonstrate significant effectiveness in mitigating the adverse impacts of extreme low temperatures on maize yields, highlighting their protective role in cold climates. However, both measures show limited effectiveness in alleviating yield reductions caused by high temperature stress, indicating that current insurance mechanisms and protective technologies require further enhancement to better manage heat-related risks. 6.2 Policy recommendations Based on the above findings, the following policy implications are proposed: it (1) Strengthen extreme climate monitoring and agricultural early warning systems. Given the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme temperature events, which pose is imperative to stable maize yields, a serious threat to enhance the agricultural climate monitoring network. This can be achieved by integrating meteorological stations, remote sensing technologies, and smart weather equipment to improve real-time tracking of extreme weather events. Additionally, a multi-tiered and precise early warning mechanism for agricultural production should be established, enabling timely information dissemination and responsive planning by local authorities and farmers, thereby supporting national food security. (2) Accelerate the breeding and dissemination of heat- and cold- tolerant maize varieties. Since extreme heat significantly affects northern maize production and low temperatures pose threats in the south, investment in the development of climate- resilient maize varieties must be intensified. This includes supporting innovation in germplasm resources, molecular breeding technologies, and multi-location field trials. A sound varietal promotion system should also be developed to prioritize the dissemination of climate-adapted varieties in regions most prone to temperature extremes, thus enhancing the overall resilience of cropping systems. (3) Promote the integration of agronomic optimization and water- saving technologies. The extent of yield loss under extreme temperatures is shaped not only by climatic conditions but also by on-farm management practices. Farmers should be encouraged to adjust sowing dates, planting density, and water-fertilizer strategies in accordance with local climatic and varietal characteristics to minimize the risk of heat or cold stress during critical growth periods. Additionally, efficient irrigation technologies—such as drip irrigation, sprinkler systems, and fertigation—should be promoted to mitigate soil moisture deficits caused by high temperatures and improve the agricultural system’s adaptive capacity to climate stress. (4) Develop regionally differentiated response strategies. Given that extreme heat predominantly affects northern maize- producing areas, while extreme cold poses greater risks to spring maize in the south, targeted response strategies

  generalrecommendations
  Keywords: extreme maize temperatures yields climate heat corn temperature agricultural ects high signi stress cold technologies
• Exploring the Relationship between Climate Variability and Crop Yields in Niger State, Nigeria (2026) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi

  Future studies can examine the impact of climate variability on crop yields in other regions. Studies can use different methods to analyze the relationship between climate variables and crop yields. Research can focus on developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability on agricultural production.

  generalfuture-work sectionevidence 5/5
  Keywords: future studies examine impact climate variability crop yields
• Strip-Till Farming: Combining Controlled-Release Blended Fertilizer to Enhance Rainfed Maize Yield While Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2024) · Agronomy · cited 8× · doi

  The study was conducted in a specific region (hilly region of northeast China) and may not be generalizable to other regions. The study only considered a limited number of tillage methods and fertilization modes. The study did not consider other factors that may affect maize yield and greenhouse gas emissions, such as soil type and climate change.

  generallimitations sectionevidence 5/5
  Keywords: study was conducted specific region hilly northeast china
• Disentangling the Regional and Contextual Dependencies of Climate Effects on Global Maize Yield (2026) · Water Resources Research · doi

  Abstract Maize is a cornerstone of global food security, yet the effects of interannual climate variability on its yield under varying production contexts remain not fully understood.

  generalabstractevidence 4/5
  Keywords: abstract maize cornerstone global food security effects interannual climate variability yield varying production contexts remain
• Effects of low-temperature stress during rice heading stage on carbon and nitrogen allocation in paddy eco-system of northeastern China (2025) · Frontiers in Plant Science · cited 7× · doi

  Further studies are needed to investigate the effects of low-temperature stress on different rice varieties - Research on the mechanisms of low-temperature tolerance in rice is necessary - Studies on the impact of climate change on rice production and C and N allocation are required

  generalfuture-work sectionevidence 3/5
  Keywords: further studies needed investigate effects low-temperature stress different
• A stage-specific drip fertigation regime mitigates yield loss in winter wheat sown 20 days late by improving sink establishment and post-anthesis source activity (2026) · Agricultural Water Management · doi

  Delayed sowing of winter wheat is increasingly common in the winter wheat–summer maize rotation system of northern China, yet whether its yield penalty can be mitigated without increasing seasonal water and nitrogen (N) inputs remains unclear.

  generalabstractevidence 2/5
  Keywords: winter wheat delayed sowing increasingly common summer maize rotation system northern china whether yield penalty

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