The traditional criminological literature is limited

The gap

Evidence profile

Sourced from the stated research gap and future-work section and stated challenges and future work of the source papers, classified as general, drawn from work published between 1979 and 1982, spanning 4 journals.

Supporting evidence — 5 representative gaps

• Modernization, Female Social Roles, and Female Crime: A Cross-National Investigation (1982) · Sociological Quarterly · doi

  There is a need for an explanation of female crime rate variation that incorporates not only indicators of female sex roles but also other social structural variables. The research literature concerned with the relationship between crime and developmental status has generally demonstrated a positive relationship between measures of industrialization and urbanization, and property and total crime rates.

  generalstated research gap
  Keywords: there need explanation female crime rate variation incorporates
• Poverty, Inequality, and the Urban Homicide Rate: Some Unexpected Findings (1982) · Criminology · doi

  Future research should continue to investigate the relationship between poverty, inequality, and homicide rates. Studies should consider both absolute and relative measures of poverty, and control for various demographic variables. Research should also examine the relationship between poverty, inequality, and other types of crime.

  generalfuture-work section
  Keywords: future research continue investigate relationship between poverty inequality
• Modeling Crime Trends: a Criminal Opportunity Perspective (1981) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi

  The traditional criminological literature is limited in explaining crime rate trends. Previous attempts to model crime trends have used correlates found to be associated with the risk of committing Index crimes as exogenous variables, which can account for only a relatively modest share of the increments in crime rates.

  generalstated research gap
  Keywords: traditional criminological literature limited explaining crime rate trends
• On Being Unemployed and Being a Victim of Crime (1979) · Australian Journal of Social Issues · doi

  The paper notes that the standard error on the robbery with violence estimates is high, so extreme caution must be exercised in comparing these rates. The Bureau of Statistics will not make available raw data on the number of actual victimizations of each type within the sample. The paper highlights the need for further research into the relationship between unemployment and crime victimization.

  generalstated challenges
  Keywords: paper notes standard error robbery violence estimates high
• Modeling Crime Trends: a Criminal Opportunity Perspective (1981) · Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency · doi

  LAWRENCE E. COHEN A macrodynamic social indicator framework is used to demonstrate how accurate crime rate forecasts can be produced. Trends in reported robbery, burglary, larce- ny, and auto theft rates for the United States are modeled, using annual data for the years 1947-72. The poverty ratio and unemployment rate, two variables considered important predictors of crime in the traditional criminological literature, fail to account for the index crime trends in this analysis. A "criminal opportunity perspective" is used to formulate several substantively meaningful "social produc- tion functions" for the above crime rate trends, showing how relatively moderate social changes can generate rather dramatic increments in the crime rate. For ex- ample, I consider how the participation of women in the labor force, the incidence of persons living alone, and the presence of lightweight durable goods provide of- fenders with opportunities favorable for carrying out the above illegal acts. Stochastic equations estimating these production functions indicate that the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation of disturbances is consistently accepted. Ex post forecasts of 1973-75 reported crime rates used to gauge the accuracy of the models usually err within a few percentage points. The data presented here indicate the efficacy of including criminal opportuni- ty factors in crime rate forecasting designed to supply policy makers with technical information relevant to organizational goal criteria. In recent years, the American system of criminal justice has been sub- ject to widespread criticism for failing to control crime and promote justice. This criticism is at least partially related to the inability of the police, courts, and correctional agencies to handle effectively the volume of cases brought to their attention. For example, Schrag (1971:1) notes that because of insufficient personnel, many offenses reported to the police cannot be ~ investigated; the volume of cases before the courts encourages the use of plea bargaining to reduce the time and cost of trial; and overcrowded pris- ons may influence judges to accord alternative dispositions to persons con- victed of felonies. While it is highly questionable that any failure of the LAWRENCE E. COHEN: Associate Professor, Sociology Department, University of Texas at Austin. The research reported here was supported by National Science Foundation Grant Number NSF SOC 77-13261 and National Institute of Mental Health Grant Number 1-ROl- MI~3111?-Ql. The contributions of Marcus Felson to the ideas expressed in this paper are greatly acknowledged, as is his assistance in the preparation and analysis of these data.

  generalfuture workevidence 5/5
  Keywords: crime rate reported social used trends criminal lawrence cohen forecasts rates years functions persons indicate

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