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Open research questions in Climate variability and models

117 unresolved questions extracted from the limitations and future-work sections of 1,222 Climate variability and models papers in our library. Each links back to the study that raised it.

What the literature leaves open

  • A strengthening of this teleconnection has been found under greenhouse warming, but its evolution across the seasonal cycle, its interplay with other tropical ocean basins, and its impacts on NAE predictability in future scenarios remain unclear.

    Enhanced ENSO-driven potential predictability over the Euro-Atlantic under greenhouse warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The Western Balkans (Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) occupy a transitional climatic position between the Mediterranean hotspot and the continental Balkan interior within Southeast Europe, yet multi-country, multi-model, station-resolved assessments of regional aridification remain scarce.

    Projected Aridity Dynamics Across the Western Balkans Using a Multi-Model CMIP6 Ensemble and Short-Term AI Benchmarking · 2026 · DOI

  • The re- sulting SOM regimes may also be partly sensitive to the se- lected spatial domain; although the domain used here was chosen to include the key circulation systems controlling SC- SSM onset, sensitivity tests with alternative domains should be explored in future work. In this sense, NL26 may better isolate the predictable component of onset tim- ing, while the detailed subseasonal triggering mechanisms remain beyond the scope of this study.

    A synoptic clustering-based definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset and application to seasonal prediction · 2026 · DOI

  • Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play a central role in producing extreme precipitation over the conterminous United States (CONUS), yet their simulation and future evolution remain elusive.

    Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High‐Resolution Global and Regional Simulations · 2026 · DOI

  • Given that the reliability of climate models in projecting extreme temperatures remains unclear, we conduct a genuine “forecast” verification by comparing the independent near‐term projections of extreme temperature indices over land by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models with the subsequent observations during the out‐of‐sample period of 2006–2023.

    Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023 · 2026 · DOI

  • The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a central component of tropical climate, but the conditions under which a tropical rain belt remains zonally extended or becomes unstable to zonal organization are not well understood.

    Spontaneous Zonal Symmetry Breaking of Tropical Rain Belt · 2026

  • This shift requires a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), while the warmer base state alone is insufficient to push it farther north.

    Migration of the intertropical convergence zone driven by ocean circulation changes · 2026 · DOI

  • ABSTRACT Possible different impacts of anticyclonic and cyclonic types of Rossby wave breaking (RWB) over southeastern Siberia on the anomalous circulation and associated unseasonable midsummer weather over Japan have not been investigated before.

    The Relation Between Two Types of Frequent Wave Breaking Over Southeastern Siberia and Different Conditions of Unseasonable Midsummer Weather Over Japan · 2026 · DOI

  • Nevertheless, how the MJO varies across different phases and types of ENSO remains elusive, especially whether there exist asymmetric El Niño–La Niña differences in the MJO under two types of ENSO has received much limited attention.

    Asymmetric Modulation of MJO by Two Types of ENSO · 2026 · DOI

  • Abstract The modulation of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been widely investigated, yet the mechanisms—particularly the combined influences of ENSO phase (El Niño/La Niña) and type (eastern Pacific/central Pacific)—remain elusive.

    Asymmetric Modulation of MJO by Two Types of ENSO · 2026 · DOI

  • While oceanic drivers of its interannual variability are extensively studied, the influence of atmospheric rivers (ARs), contributing approximately 30%–40% of the climatological wintertime precipitation in SC, remains unclear.

    Atmospheric Rivers Linking Tropical Forcing to Winter Precipitation over Southern China · 2026 · DOI

  • Abstract AI models have emerged as potential complements to physics‐based models, but their skill in capturing observed regional trends with important societal impacts remains unexplored.

    Benchmarking Regional Thermodynamic Trends in an AI Emulator, ACE2, and a Hybrid Model, NeuralGCM · 2026 · DOI

  • Future research could address these limitations by conducting seasonally disaggregated analyses, incorporating trend and change-point tests, evaluating autocorrelation and stationarity properties of the series, and assessing the robustness of clusters under alternative spatial weighting or density-adjustment schemes.

    Defining of homogeneous climate regions in Türkiye using panel clustering analysis · 2026 · DOI

  • Frontiers in Climate 18 frontiersin.org Qacami et al. 10.3389/fclim.2026.1743573 FIGURE 5 Spatial distribution of projected changes in mean consecutive dry days (CDD) between 2080—2100 and the baseline (1980—2005) in the Tangier–Tétouan–Al Hoceima region under SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5, across four seasons. regional climate dynamics. This applies to both precipitation and temperature, particularly in regions like northern Morocco, where the interplay between large-scale circulation, surface– complex atmosphere feedbacks, and local forcings creates patterns that are challenging to simulate accurately (Okacha et al., 2024).

    Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: case study of the Tanger-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, Morocco · 2026 · DOI

  • Instantaneous ozone sampling methodology (first day of every month) versus monthly-mean climatological ozone fields for radiation scheme diagnostics creates temporal discontinuities that require evaluation. The impact of this sampling frequency mismatch on the accuracy of methane and ozone radiative forcing estimates in CMIP7 models has not been quantified.

    CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities · 2026 · DOI

  • The NOAA heat index calculation at 2 metres relies on conversion between Fahrenheit and the model's native temperature units, but no systematic evaluation has been conducted on how temperature unit conversion errors propagate through the heat index formula or affect inter-model comparisons of daily maximum heat index fields.

    CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities · 2026 · DOI

  • The reference ozone field (o3ref, o3refClim) and reference methane field (ch4ref) used in diagnostic radiation calls for CMIP7 require validation protocols to verify that 'double-call' radiation scheme outputs produce physically consistent radiative flux differences. Currently, no intercomparison framework exists to assess whether methane and ozone reference fields yield valid forcing estimates across diverse model radiation schemes.

    CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities · 2026 · DOI

  • The surface upwelling longwave radiation fluxes under clear-sky conditions (rluscs) and clean clear-sky aerosol-free conditions (rluscsaf) require consistent treatment of surface emissivity values smaller than 1 across models. No specification is provided for how reflected downwelling longwave radiation should be computed or validated when models implement different surface emissivity parameterizations.

    CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities · 2026 · DOI

  • The reffccwctop variable (cloud-top effective radius) exhibits inconsistent treatment across CMIP7 models regarding whether calculations apply to whole grid boxes or only cloudy portions, and how cloud absence is handled during time averaging. A standardized methodology for computing this diagnostic across all models needs to be established to enable valid inter-model comparisons of cloud-top effective radius in liquid and ice clouds.

    CMIP7 Data Request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities · 2026 · DOI

  • The paper analyzes climatological indices (zonal SST contrast, equatorial surface divergence, meridional precipitation asymmetry) at fixed spatial domains (Niño-3, Niño-4, 120°E–150°W); the sensitivity of these indices and their mechanistic links to non-monotonic ENSO amplitude changes when domain boundaries or averaging regions are adjusted has not been explored.

    Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The Wyrtki frequency (WF) and Bjerknes stability (BJ) indices are derived from multivariate linear regression of RO model parameters, but the paper does not assess how regression residuals (ξT and ξh) representing non-resolved nonlinear processes vary with global warming level or interact with the non-monotonic ENSO amplitude response mechanisms.

    Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The EOF-based separation of Eastern Pacific (EP) versus Central Pacific (CP) ENSO flavors explained only 88.3% of variance in the first two modes; the contribution of higher EOF modes (3+) to ENSO diversity and their potential shifts under post-2100 warming levels have not been characterized.

    Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The paper employs a 50-year running window for ENSO amplitude, period, and asymmetry calculations, but does not systematically test sensitivity to alternative window lengths or filtering approaches; the impact of the 1–8-year Butterworth bandpass filter specification on detecting non-monotonic responses across different warming levels (1.5°C to 4°C GWL) should be evaluated.

    Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The recharge-oscillator (RO) model analysis was limited to MIROC-ES2L simulations with extended output through 2300; validation of the RO diagnostic framework parameters (Bjerknes feedback R, ocean damping ε, discharge-recharge efficiency F1 and F2) across the full ensemble of 12 CMIP5/CMIP6 models for post-2100 scenarios remains incomplete, particularly for quantifying how these dynamical parameters shift under non-monotonic ENSO amplitude responses.

    Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming · 2026 · DOI

  • The predominantly negative LAI-WVT relationships over the Amazon indicate that moisture transport interactions with background climatic conditions vary by ecosystem type, but the specific mechanisms by which enhanced cloud cover and reduced solar radiation mediate these relationships remain underspecified; detailed process studies isolating radiation effects from moisture supply effects in humid tropical ecosystems are needed.

    Atmospheric moisture transport anomalies and vegetation response in arid coastal ecosystems: insights from the 2017 coastal El Niño in northern Peru · 2026 · DOI

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117 open questions have been extracted from the limitations and future-work passages of 1,222 Climate variability and models papers in our library. Each one below links back to the study that raised it, so you can read the original claim in context.

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