Open research questions in Risk and Safety Analysis

What the literature leaves open

• Classical evidence theory rules often yield counter-intuitive results in high-conflict scenarios. The need for a novel risk assessment model that can effectively address the issues of uncertainty and inconsistency inherent in expert opinions. The lack of a comprehensive risk indicator system that can be used for safety-critical software risk assessment.

  Uncertainty-Driven Risk Evaluation for Safety-Critical Software Under Conflicting Evidence Judgments: A Dual-Dimensional Evidence Fusion Approach · 2026 · DOI

• The lack of effective technical means prevents the utilization of historical data and knowledge, - The study does not provide a comprehensive comparison with other methods, - The model relies on expert knowledge and domain expertise, - The study focuses on a specific application domain (nuclear power plants)

  Fault Diagnosis for Key Nuclear Power Plant Systems and Equipment Based on Knowledge Graphs and Bayesian Networks · 2026 · DOI

• Investigating the application of the proposed method to other domains, - Developing more advanced methods for structure and parameter learning, - Exploring the use of other machine learning techniques for fault diagnosis, - Analyzing the scalability of the proposed method for large-scale systems

  Fault Diagnosis for Key Nuclear Power Plant Systems and Equipment Based on Knowledge Graphs and Bayesian Networks · 2026 · DOI

• Lack of detailed industry guidelines for LNG bunkering safety zones. Challenges related to risk management and the establishment of safety zones during the bunkering process. Need for strategies to reduce the leakage rate and duration of accidental LNG releases.

  A Comprehensive Review of the Establishment of Safety Zones and Quantitative Risk Analysis during Ship-to-Ship LNG Bunkering · 2024 · DOI

• Recommendations are made to propose improvements to the legal documents and suggest further research on the establishment of safety zones during ship-to-ship LNG bunkering to relevant authorities.

  A Comprehensive Review of the Establishment of Safety Zones and Quantitative Risk Analysis during Ship-to-Ship LNG Bunkering · 2024 · DOI

• However, principle (h), providing information in a relative or comparative format, has not been addressed.

  Cognitive Considerations in Designing Effective Labels for Presenting Risk Information · 1986 · DOI

• Future research should focus on developing more comprehensive and generalizable models of industrial accidents. Future research should explore the application of the RQM to other industries and contexts. Future research should investigate the effectiveness of the recommended actions in reducing industrial accidents.

  Industrial Accident Analysis: A Quantitative Framework for Risk Modelling, Root Cause Classification, and Safety System Design — with Implications for the Spinning Industry · 2026 · DOI

• There is a lack of systematic, quantitative analysis of major industrial disasters. There is a need for a dedicated section on the translational value of these findings for the spinning industry. There is a gap in the classification of root causes of industrial accidents.

  Industrial Accident Analysis: A Quantitative Framework for Risk Modelling, Root Cause Classification, and Safety System Design — with Implications for the Spinning Industry · 2026 · DOI

• The paper proposes that SSE can identify which risks or scenarios are 'acceptable to societal stakeholders' through normative prospections, but does not establish procedures for resolving conflicts when different stakeholder groups produce contradictory evaluations of desirable versus undesirable futures in the same technology domain.

  Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

• SSE's proposed ability to contextualize impacts through lived experiences and socio-cultural factors is presented as addressing marginalized groups, but the paper does not specify selection mechanisms, inclusion protocols, or equity frameworks for ensuring that marginalized perspectives are systematically captured rather than incidentally included in scenario development.

  Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

• PRA has limitations in capturing all possible outcomes in complex, stochastic systems. The approach may not account for all possible failure paths ahead of time. The paper acknowledges the need for continuous updating of PRA models with new data and operational experience.

  Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Artemis and future space exploration programs · 2026 · DOI

• The development of more advanced PRA models, incorporating new tools and techniques. The application of the approach to other complex systems, beyond space exploration. The investigation of new methods for capturing human error and performance in PRA models.

  Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Artemis and future space exploration programs · 2026 · DOI

• Empirical calibration of the relationships between variables. Development of governance tools and applied diagnostic frameworks based on the Accessibility Geometry framework.

  Accessibility Geometry Reference Stack: Reference A - Accessibility Variable Register · 2026 · DOI

• The need for a controlled vocabulary for accessibility and its relationship to various variables. The lack of a framework for understanding accessibility and its interactions with other variables.

  Accessibility Geometry Reference Stack: Reference A - Accessibility Variable Register · 2026 · DOI

• The study identifies a gap in the literature on supply chain risk management in the quartz sand mining and processing industry. The study addresses the need for a framework for evaluating and prioritizing risks in the industry.

  Supply Chain Risk Management Analysis Using the House of Risk (HOR) and Analytical Network Process (ANP) at PT XYZ · 2026 · DOI

• The study identifies a gap in understanding risk patterns in agile automotive environments. It highlights the need for more research on risk management in the automotive industry.

  Automotive project risk management in agile environments · 2026 · DOI

• The study relies on secondary sources due to limited forensic data access. Spatial analysis depends on publicly available satellite imagery rather than on-site GPS verification. Chemical analysis relies on theoretical models rather than direct forensic confirmation.

  CIANGSANA WAREHOUSE EXPLOSION: CHEMICAL DEGRADATION AND ZONING COMPLIANCE ANALYSIS · 2026 · DOI

• The increasing complexity of IT projects. The need for more comprehensive and objective risk assessments. The limitations of traditional risk assessment methods.

  AI driven risk assessment frameworks for it projects: state of the art, challenges and future direction · 2026 · DOI

• Further research is needed to guarantee the validity and completeness of the AI-driven risk assessment framework. The paper suggests studying future AI trends, such as agentic AI, natural language processing (NLP), and explainable AI (XAI) approaches. The use of AI-driven risk assessment frameworks in various application areas, such as healthcare and smart cities, needs to be explored.

  AI driven risk assessment frameworks for it projects: state of the art, challenges and future direction · 2026 · DOI

• The study identifies the challenge of developing general resilience, the capacity to cope with the unknown. The study also identifies the challenge of mitigating threat scenarios through targeted intervention scenarios. The study highlights the challenge of applying novel methodologies to assess vulnerability and develop targeted intervention scenarios.

  Quantitative scenario- and expert-based vulnerability assessment: transdisciplinary methodology and application in Germany’s health care system · 2026 · DOI

• The application of the TSE-Vul method revealed several procedural limitations, including the need for brief, structured training for experts to ensure correct application of the weighting and performance-evaluation steps. The study did not include a structured reflection or discussion round after the evaluations were completed.

  Quantitative scenario- and expert-based vulnerability assessment: transdisciplinary methodology and application in Germany’s health care system · 2026 · DOI

• Existing literature lacks integrated approaches that combine probabilistic reasoning with strategic performance frameworks. Traditional performance management tools lack sufficient detail and flexibility.

  A HYBRID STRATEGIC PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR FUNCTIONAL ASSESSMENT AND RISK CONTROL IN INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY · 2026 · DOI

• In the face of growing uncertainty and complexity in require industrial ecosystems, organizations decision-making tools that are not only integrated but also intelligent and adaptive. This study introduced a hybrid strategic evaluation framework designed to address these challenges by integrating the Balanced Scorecard (BSC), the OFAI method, and Bayesian Networks (BNs). The proposed model advances the conventional BSC by incorporating a fifth strategic axis of environmental performance, allowing organizations to account for external disruptions and sustainability challenges. The OFAI method strengthens this framework by systematically identifying critical success factors, while BNs provide the inferential power to perform dynamic risk evaluations and scenario simulations in real-time. learning-related The application of this hybrid framework to a textile manufacturing case confirmed its practical relevance and diagnostic strength. Key findings revealed that enhancing internal process realization and training and responsibility) had a significant positive impact on financial performance. The environmental axis proved equally crucial in addressing external threats, such as COVID-19, which would otherwise remain outside the scope of traditional BSC models. factors (e.g., Fig. 10. Bayesian inference to set the learning axis indicator to 100% By enabling automatic updates and probabilistic reasoning, the model goes beyond static dashboards and supports continuous, adaptive decision-makin g. 9 ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING, VOL.

  A HYBRID STRATEGIC PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR FUNCTIONAL ASSESSMENT AND RISK CONTROL IN INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY · 2026 · DOI

• The study identifies a gap in the existing literature on environmental security risks in the Black Sea, particularly with regards to the need for a region-specific risk-prioritization framework.

  Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective · 2026 · DOI

• The study has some limitations, although it offers a baseline for risk assessment. First, the conclusions represent expert judgment, which is dependent on. A limited number of collaborating experts (n = 13) is the second constraint. A larger and more varied expert group could have improved the findings' generalizability and representativeness, even though this panel size is compatible with Delphi-based risk assessment research and permits in-depth expert judgment. To improve the external validity and robustness of the risk 123 Environmental Security Risks… MARITIME FACULTY JOURNAL prioritization results, the expert pool, including more representatives from different disciplines, institutions, and regions, could be used in future studies. To effectively capture the complex trade-offs and linguistic uncertainties in expert judgment, future research could also use additional multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodologies, such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) or Fuzzy Delphi. 6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The study evaluates maritime environmental security risks in the Black Sea from Türkiye’s perspective by using a structured expert-based 5×5 probability–impact risk matrix. This provides a systematic framework for identified risk areas. The findings indicate that environmental risks in the Black Sea are growing as an environmental security issue in addition to being an ecological concern. This finding is generally consistent with earlier research that conceptualizes the Black Sea environmental security framework (Rudneva and Petzold-Bradley, 2001; Başkan, 2020; Algan and Aydoğan, 2023). The risks associated with land and river basins, associated with climate change, are the focus of the high priority risk categories. This result is consistent with research studies like Tutak’s study, which found that climate change is the highest risk to maritime security in the Black Sea (Tutak, 2023). Following these two risks, maritime transportation and Russia-Ukraine warrelated risks also come after, consistent with studies in these topics (Ok, 2025; Algan and Aydoğan, 2023). The results also show that, despite the preponderance of war-related and hybrid dangers, persistent environmental threats -such as pollution from shipping and the spread of invasive species via ballast water- remain considerable. Toneva (2015) and Başkan (2020), who highlight the cumulative and transboundary nature of environmental stresses in the Black Sea, have produced similar findings. This study, on the other hand, contributes to the literature by demonstrating how experts rank these established risks in relation to recently emerging threats. The study also highlighted the differences in expert opinions concerning some of the Black Sea environmental security risks. This may be related to the participants’ different backgrounds and areas of expertise. The ranking of RF-Ukraine war and other military activity-related risks (R3), which has the highest arithmetic mean (14.85) among all variables but is 124 Environmental Security Risks… MARITIME FACULTY JOURNAL ranked fourth in the final hierarchy based on its median (15), is one example of this difference in the study. It emphasizes the importance of the use of the median in Delphi studies, tolerating the "extremist" expert opinions from unduly affecting risk priorities. These variations might be seen as a finding that highlights the region's environmental risk governance complexity and unpredictability. In conclusion, by providing a thorough and methodical evaluation of maritime environmental threats in the Black Sea, this study adds to the body of literature on environmental security. The findings highlight the need to address the region's environmental vulnerability from both an ecological and a security and strategic perspective. Therefore, the results could be used as a starting point for further research looking at threshold effects and cross-risk interactions.

  Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective · 2026 · DOI

Most-cited papers in Risk and Safety Analysis

• A safe operating space for humanity · Nature · 2009 · 9,878 citations
• Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality · Risk Analysis · 2004 · 2,723 citations
• On The Quantitative Definition of Risk · Risk Analysis · 1981 · 2,265 citations
• Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide · Futures · 2006 · 1,076 citations
• The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment · Crime & Delinquency · 2005 · 1,027 citations
• Thirty years of safety climate research: Reflections and future directions · Accident Analysis & Prevention · 2010 · 919 citations
• An investigation of the Therac-25 accidents · Computer · 1993 · 748 citations
• Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis · Risk Analysis · 1999 · 696 citations
• What's Wrong with Risk Matrices? · Risk Analysis · 2008 · 667 citations
• A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios · Management Science · 2006 · 591 citations

Most recent work

• Accessibility Geometry Reference Stack: Reference A - Accessibility Variable Register · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · 2026
• A data-driven risk assessment framework for ammonia pipelines: Insights from 232 accident cases (1970–2023) · Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering · 2026
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Artemis and future space exploration programs · Acta Astronautica · 2026
• Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · AI and Ethics · 2026
• A holistic framework for concurrent occupational safety and process safety risk assessment using interval-valued circular intuitionistic fuzzy set · Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries · 2026
• Research on risk prevention and control of coal mine gas explosion using bayesian network and system dynamics: An optimization model for safety investment decision-making · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · 2026
• Human error analysis of nuclear power plant operational events based on the modified HFACS-BN model · Nuclear Engineering and Technology · 2026
• AI driven risk assessment frameworks for it projects: state of the art, challenges and future direction · Information Technology and Management · 2026
• A novel integrated dependence assessment method for human reliability analysis under uncertainty and expert disagreement · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · 2026
• A data-driven risk prediction framework based on multi-criteria sorting considering interaction · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · 2026

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