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Open research questions in Risk and Safety Analysis

32 unresolved questions extracted from the limitations and future-work sections of 847 Risk and Safety Analysis papers in our library. Each links back to the study that raised it.

What the literature leaves open

  • The study has some limitations, although it offers a baseline for risk assessment. First, the conclusions represent expert judgment, which is dependent on. A limited number of collaborating experts (n = 13) is the second constraint. A larger and more varied expert group could have improved the findings' generalizability and representativeness, even though this panel size is compatible with Delphi-based risk assessment research and permits in-depth expert judgment. To improve the external validity and robustness of the risk 123 Environmental Security Risks… MARITIME FACULTY JOURNAL prioritization results, the expert pool, including more representatives from different disciplines, institutions, and regions, could be used in future studies. To effectively capture the complex trade-offs and linguistic uncertainties in expert judgment, future research could also use additional multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodologies, such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) or Fuzzy Delphi. 6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The study evaluates maritime environmental security risks in the Black Sea from Türkiye’s perspective by using a structured expert-based 5×5 probability–impact risk matrix. This provides a systematic framework for identified risk areas. The findings indicate that environmental risks in the Black Sea are growing as an environmental security issue in addition to being an ecological concern. This finding is generally consistent with earlier research that conceptualizes the Black Sea environmental security framework (Rudneva and Petzold-Bradley, 2001; Başkan, 2020; Algan and Aydoğan, 2023). The risks associated with land and river basins, associated with climate change, are the focus of the high priority risk categories. This result is consistent with research studies like Tutak’s study, which found that climate change is the highest risk to maritime security in the Black Sea (Tutak, 2023). Following these two risks, maritime transportation and Russia-Ukraine warrelated risks also come after, consistent with studies in these topics (Ok, 2025; Algan and Aydoğan, 2023). The results also show that, despite the preponderance of war-related and hybrid dangers, persistent environmental threats -such as pollution from shipping and the spread of invasive species via ballast water- remain considerable. Toneva (2015) and Başkan (2020), who highlight the cumulative and transboundary nature of environmental stresses in the Black Sea, have produced similar findings. This study, on the other hand, contributes to the literature by demonstrating how experts rank these established risks in relation to recently emerging threats. The study also highlighted the differences in expert opinions concerning some of the Black Sea environmental security risks. This may be related to the participants’ different backgrounds and areas of expertise. The ranking of RF-Ukraine war and other military activity-related risks (R3), which has the highest arithmetic mean (14.85) among all variables but is 124 Environmental Security Risks… MARITIME FACULTY JOURNAL ranked fourth in the final hierarchy based on its median (15), is one example of this difference in the study. It emphasizes the importance of the use of the median in Delphi studies, tolerating the "extremist" expert opinions from unduly affecting risk priorities. These variations might be seen as a finding that highlights the region's environmental risk governance complexity and unpredictability. In conclusion, by providing a thorough and methodical evaluation of maritime environmental threats in the Black Sea, this study adds to the body of literature on environmental security. The findings highlight the need to address the region's environmental vulnerability from both an ecological and a security and strategic perspective. Therefore, the results could be used as a starting point for further research looking at threshold effects and cross-risk interactions.

    Analysis of the Environmental Security Risks in the Black Sea: Türkiye’s Perspective · 2026 · DOI

  • These configurations emphasize the importance of Low Media Exposure (C3), Insufficient Knowledge (B3), Testing Deficiencies (C2), Weak Response System (D3), and Process Safety Hazards (A2). In addition, targeted training for food handlers and small-scale operators should be implemented to reduce risks associated with Insufficient Knowledge (B3). In these configurations, isolated post-incident punishment is insufficient, as risks are fundamentally driven by information opacity and fragmented responsibility across multiple stages. While prior literature empha- sizes government regulation as a primary constraint, our findings indicate that major incidents may still occur despite active govern- ment regulation if detection mechanisms or public participation are insufficient, thereby providing new empirical evidence for the systems theory of food safety governance.

    A multi-dimensional risk point identification and governance framework: evidence from marine food safety incidents · 2026 · DOI

  • The overall outcomes of this study highlight how artificial intelligence is revolutionising the risk assessment framework. It emphasises the importance of incorporating AI technology into firms’ risk management systems. Organisations must respond quickly to cybersecurity risks posed by cybercriminals and adversaries. One barrier to investing in cybersecurity risk management is measuring its benefits and costs, similar to other IT projects. The organisation is responsible for identifying the need for cybersecurity. Continuous improvement in AI driven risk assessment framework enables organisations to adapt to the rapidly changing AI technology. To better prepare for emerging cyberthreats, organisations should analyse both their own cybersecurity risks and industry-wide trends. Organisations must create a tailored approach that incorporates various AI technologies and addresses their specific needs and challenges. Continuous evaluation and adjustment of these technologies is necessary to adapt to changing business environments and potential threats. The risk assessment framework should include qualitative assessments, such as expert opinions on cyber risk, non-financial strategic decision-making, and multicriteria decision-making.

    AI driven risk assessment frameworks for it projects: state of the art, challenges and future direction · 2026 · DOI

  • In the face of growing uncertainty and complexity in require industrial ecosystems, organizations decision-making tools that are not only integrated but also intelligent and adaptive. This study introduced a hybrid strategic evaluation framework designed to address these challenges by integrating the Balanced Scorecard (BSC), the OFAI method, and Bayesian Networks (BNs). The proposed model advances the conventional BSC by incorporating a fifth strategic axis of environmental performance, allowing organizations to account for external disruptions and sustainability challenges. The OFAI method strengthens this framework by systematically identifying critical success factors, while BNs provide the inferential power to perform dynamic risk evaluations and scenario simulations in real-time. learning-related The application of this hybrid framework to a textile manufacturing case confirmed its practical relevance and diagnostic strength. Key findings revealed that enhancing internal process realization and training and responsibility) had a significant positive impact on financial performance. The environmental axis proved equally crucial in addressing external threats, such as COVID-19, which would otherwise remain outside the scope of traditional BSC models. factors (e.g., Fig. 10. Bayesian inference to set the learning axis indicator to 100% By enabling automatic updates and probabilistic reasoning, the model goes beyond static dashboards and supports continuous, adaptive decision-makin g. 9 ACADEMIC JOURNAL OF MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING, VOL.

    A HYBRID STRATEGIC PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR FUNCTIONAL ASSESSMENT AND RISK CONTROL IN INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY · 2026 · DOI

  • PRA analysts frequently assumed that the target design capabilities had been achieved. Failure rates used in the models often presumed components operated within the "bathtub" region of the reliability curve—after infant mortality but before wear-out—assuming constant failure rates, which may not reflect actual performance during early operations. 4. Difficulties Defining LOC/LOM Thresholds: Establishing thresholds for Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) proved challenging. Efforts to extrapolate from Space Shuttle and ISS experience were only partially effective due to the distinct nature of Artemis missions. 5. Challenges in Phase-Specific Risk Standards: Setting risk standards for individual mission phases was ultimately found to be impractical. Many risks span multiple mission phases, making it difficult to determine when a hazard was introduced or when its effects would manifest. 5.3.2. ESD-PRA integration challenge NASA originally established Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) requirements based on procedural manuals developed during the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs. However, these legacy processes were not well suited for the Artemis program, leading to a range of new challenges: 1. Inconsistent Modeling Approaches: Different modeling teams followed their own procedures, resulting in significant discrepancies compared to the outputs of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) team. This section presents recommendations aimed at enhancing the PRA approach for near-future spaceflight missions: R1 Clarify Purpose and Scope There are multiple methodologies for developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), each employing different tools tailored to specific failure modes and analytical approaches to historical data. While this flexibility can be beneficial, it often leads to inconsistencies across program elements and among separate programs. To address this, it is essential to clearly define the scope and intended purpose of the PRA early in the process, ensuring alignment in methodology, assumptions, and application across the entire program. limitations—particularly when attempting The PRA should not be treated as the exclusive or definitive tool for risk characterization. Although it is a valuable resource for identifying key risk drivers and informing program decisions, there are significant to uncertainties and condense complex, dynamic systems into a single risk number. Doing so risks oversimplifying the multi-dimensional nature of mission risk and may obscure critical context behind the models and assumptions used. Instead, the PRA should be viewed as a management tool—one that supports prioritization of risks, guides mitigation strategies, and identifies opportunities for program improvement.

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Artemis and future space exploration programs · 2026 · DOI

  • The paper proposes that SSE can identify which risks or scenarios are 'acceptable to societal stakeholders' through normative prospections, but does not establish procedures for resolving conflicts when different stakeholder groups produce contradictory evaluations of desirable versus undesirable futures in the same technology domain.

    Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

  • SSE's proposed ability to contextualize impacts through lived experiences and socio-cultural factors is presented as addressing marginalized groups, but the paper does not specify selection mechanisms, inclusion protocols, or equity frameworks for ensuring that marginalized perspectives are systematically captured rather than incidentally included in scenario development.

    Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

  • The paper acknowledges that SSE produces qualitative narrative evidence rather than standardizable metrics, but does not provide operationalized methods for translating qualitative scenario narratives into actionable policy criteria or regulatory compliance thresholds that standardization bodies and industry actors can implement consistently.

    Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

  • While SSE is proposed to identify 'unknown unknowns' and 'known unknowns' in AI impact assessment, the paper lacks concrete validation protocols or empirical datasets demonstrating whether scenarios generated through SSE actually capture impact categories missed by existing checklist and assessment frameworks, particularly for general-purpose technologies like Generative AI.

    Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

  • The efficiency of SSE's ability to identify novel impacts in AI risk assessment is directly dependent on the sampling approach and diversity of perspectives included, yet the paper does not specify standardized criteria for determining adequate sampling size, composition, or representativeness thresholds when selecting stakeholders and affected populations for scenario generation.

    Scenario-based sociotechnical envisioning (SSE): an approach to enhance systemic risk assessments · 2026 · DOI

  • Relevant aspects of human error are systematized, including applicable systems for effective risk management in order to provide Romanian OSH specialists with tools for deepening/understanding a decisive and - at the same time - insufficiently studied aspect at the national level.

    Approaching Human Error in Industrial Settings: Memento for Romanian Occupational Health and Safety Professionals · 2024 · DOI

  • In this study, Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM), which is one of the methods for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), is used to determine HEPs in steel scrap cargo operations due to the limited data availability on this topic.

    A slim based approach for human error probability of steel scrap cargo operations as a critical process in the maritime sector · 2022 · DOI

  • In most rankings conducted to date, the categories and attributes used to describe the risks have varied widely, the materials and procedures have not been designed to facilitate comparisons among risks on all important attributes, and the validity and reproducibility of the resulting rankings have not been assessed.

    A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I): Overview and Test Bed Development · 2001 · DOI

  • Accordingly, the American Petroleum Institute (API) is developing a primer for site managers, to assist them in conducting this preliminary assessment, and in deciding whether more detailed ecological risk assessments are warranted.

    Primer for Evaluating Ecological risk at Petroleum Release Sites · 1999 · DOI

  • However, a significant limitation has been identified in current automated systems: their inability to interpret unstructured information contained in engineering documentation, particularly free-form text notes embedded in technical diagrams.

    AI-Enhanced Study on Automated Hazop: Generative AI Analysis of P&ID Notes for Scenario Refinement · 2026 · DOI

  • There is no standardised methodology for the regular official inspection of the safety management system, so the experience and personal preferences of the person performing the inspection play a significant role in the subject matter.

    The Need to Develop a Standardised Audit Methodology for the Safety Management System · 2025 · DOI

  • Safety benefit assessments were conducted for single systems, however, organized comparisons between systems that may inform the prioritization of future research are lacking.

    Active safety systems for powered two-wheelers: A systematic review · 2020 · DOI

  • We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts.

    The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats · 2020 · DOI

  • This paper argues that these misgivings are warranted in the nuclear sphere, despite evidence from the aviation sphere suggesting that such calculations can be accurate.

    The Aviation Paradox: Why We Can ‘Know’ Jetliners But Not Reactors · 2017 · DOI

  • Ongoing crises in which conventional resources are lacking, but societal expectations are high, call for "engineering thinking in emergency situations.

    Engineering thinking in emergency situations: A new nuclear safety concept · 2014 · DOI

  • The paper presents a procedure allowing to apply the limited data to calculating bootstrap confidence intervals for probabilities of damage which can be caused by the actions.

    ASSESSING EXTERNAL THREATS TO STRUCTURES USING LIMITED STATISTICAL DATA: AN APPROACH BASED ON DATA RESAMPLING · 2007 · DOI

  • The evaluation of the risk of water quality failures in a distribution network is a challenging task given that much of the available data are highly uncertain and vague, and many of the mechanisms are not fully understood.

    Water Quality Failures in Distribution Networks—Risk Analysis Using Fuzzy Logic and Evidential Reasoning · 2007 · DOI

  • This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions.

    Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses · 2005 · DOI

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32 open questions have been extracted from the limitations and future-work passages of 847 Risk and Safety Analysis papers in our library. Each one below links back to the study that raised it, so you can read the original claim in context.

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