Open research questions in Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

What the literature leaves open

• By applying the procedure to a sequence of consecutive time periods, the assumed rates of change of these effects could be examined.

  Household projection methods · 1987 · DOI

• Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merumuskan model matematis dan menyimpulkan hasil perhitungan cadangan premi prospektif pada asuransi jiwa seumur hidup last survivor. Terdapat perbedaan pada hasil cadangan premi ketika terjadi kematian oleh salah satu tertanggung dan dengan menggunakan hukum De’Moivre, cadangan premi yang dihasilkan pada tahun terakhir polis melebihi benefit yang dijanjikan dikontrak polis.

  Penentuan Cadangan Asuransi Jiwa Last Survivor berdasarkan Metode Gross Premium Valuation (GPV) dengan Hukum De’Moivre · 2026 · DOI

• The study does not compare the GPV method with alternative premium valuation methods or actuarial approaches for last survivor insurance, limiting assessment of its relative accuracy and efficiency.

  Penentuan Cadangan Asuransi Jiwa Last Survivor berdasarkan Metode Gross Premium Valuation (GPV) dengan Hukum De’Moivre · 2026 · DOI

• Terms contained in the Deed Poll also include but are not limited to the following: – NMFM is entitled to rely on information provided to it by NMMT in relation to a Guarantee investor without making further enquiry .

  A two-account pricing framework for hybrid variable annuity contract embedded with living and death benefit riders · 2026 · DOI

• The current age-only divisor in China's NDC pension system is actuarially unfair. There is a need for a mortality-differentiated framework to estimate mortality rates and quantify actuarial unfairness.

  Mortality Heterogeneity and Actuarial Fairness in China's Notional Defined Contribution Pension System · 2026

• Rapid growth creates youth bulges that overwhelm education systems and job markets. Population decline increases old-age dependency ratios and burdens pension systems. Improvements in life expectancy reduce the number of births needed, mechanically increasing the Bo/Bn ratio even when fertility remains constant.

  The ratio of births observed to births needed: An indicator to assess demographic sustainability · 2026 · DOI

• The stationary model assumes constant mortality and a stable age structure, which likely will not hold for populations undergoing demographic transitions. The same Bo/Bn value can imply different outcomes depending on age structure. Improvements in life expectancy reduce the number of births needed, mechanically increasing the Bo/Bn ratio even when fertility remains constant.

  The ratio of births observed to births needed: An indicator to assess demographic sustainability · 2026 · DOI

• To develop a fully joint estimator of θ, α, and β. To apply the FAAM framework to various demographic analyses.

  Adaptive correction of age heaping via an interpretable misreporting matrix · 2026 · DOI

• The study had a relatively small sample size, with 1,199 individuals completing the survey. The survey was limited to rural and urban areas in Java, Indonesia, and may not be generalizable to other populations.

  Expected lifespan and healthspan among rural and urban individuals in Java, Indonesia · 2026 · DOI

• There is a need to understand the factors associated with expected lifespan and healthspan in different populations, including rural and urban individuals in Indonesia. Prior studies have not examined the specific factors associated with expected lifespan and healthspan in these populations.

  Expected lifespan and healthspan among rural and urban individuals in Java, Indonesia · 2026 · DOI

• Further research on the application of integrated stochastic models to other regulatory frameworks, - Investigation of alternative copula assumptions, - Analysis of the impact of different mortality models on solvency risk, - Exploration of the effects of various economic scenarios on pension fund solvency

  A Unified Longevity–Financial Risk Framework for Evaluating Pension Funding Ratios · 2026 · DOI

• The joint occurrence of longevity risk and financial market volatility is not adequately addressed by standard deterministic actuarial techniques. Regulatory frameworks assess these risks in isolation, neglecting their complex nonlinear interactions. There is a need for integrated stochastic models that can quantify solvency risk and capture the true independence structure between longevity and financial risks.

  A Unified Longevity–Financial Risk Framework for Evaluating Pension Funding Ratios · 2026 · DOI

• Generating reliable estimates of life expectancy remains a challenge in several low- and middle-income countries. There is a need to identify the most accurate pair model for predicting life expectancy at birth in India.

  A pair model to describe the life expectancy at birth in India · 2026 · DOI

• The NFHS and SRS differ in their coverage and the availability of age-specific mortality data at subnational levels. As a result, direct comparisons of e0 estimates between the two sources were limited to these 22 states, thereby restricting the scope of the analysis. The remaining 14 states and union territories could not be examined using SRS data due to the absence of publicly available age-specific mortality rates, creating gaps in the overall assessment of mortality trends at the subnational level. However, district-level mortality estimation was also not feasible from the NFHS and SRS data sources. However, NFHS provides U5MR estimates at both the state and district levels, but adult mortality estimates are only available at the state level. This study does not calculate confidence intervals for the estimated life expectancy and ASMR. The values reported in the tables and figures represent point estimates, meaning single numerical values derived from the data without an accompanying measure of statistical uncertainty. Although the SRS and NFHS are nationally repre- sentative, both systems rely on sample designs and, in the case of the NFHS, retro- spective household reporting. As a result, the mortality indicators estimated here may be subject to sampling variability, recall bias, and other non-sampling errors.

  A pair model to describe the life expectancy at birth in India · 2026 · DOI

• The gap in current research is the lack of understanding of the life course mechanisms linking childhood socioeconomic status to multimorbidity. The study aims to address this gap by investigating the relationship between childhood socioeconomic status and multimorbidity in later life.

  Life course socioeconomic determinants of multimorbidity in later life: longitudinal evidence from the Health and Retirement Study · 2026 · DOI

• Investigating the trend in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is recommended. Further studies can be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of health interventions using the predicted mortality rates.

  Modeling Mortality Rates Based on the Lee-Carter Model in Golestan Province, Iran: 2011-2028 · 2026 · DOI

• There is a need for reliable information on the causes of death, mortality trends, and their changes. The study aims to address this gap by modeling mortality rates in Golestan Province, Iran.

  Modeling Mortality Rates Based on the Lee-Carter Model in Golestan Province, Iran: 2011-2028 · 2026 · DOI

• There is a need to understand the role of premature mortality and old-age mortality in lifespan disparity in India. Prior work has not examined the age-cause-specific contributions to ∆ e † 0 in India.

  Understanding Lifespan Disparity in India: The Role of Premature Mortality and Old-age Mortality · 2026 · DOI

• Third, although the methodologies applied in GBD estimates involve rigorous standardization procedures to harmonize sparse data inputs and enhance cross-regional-comparability, the residual data quality issues may persist.

  Understanding Lifespan Disparity in India: The Role of Premature Mortality and Old-age Mortality · 2026 · DOI

• Population aging and sustained fertility decline are reshaping age structures and dependency ratios. Health systems across the region remain predominantly oriented toward reactive care. The principal constraint on HVAS implementation lies in the alignment of financing arrangements, governance structures, and population health priorities.

  Rebalancing health investment across the life course: a high-value age segments framework for aging societies · 2026 · DOI

• Embedding HVAS within national planning frameworks. Building equity safeguards into any upstream investment strategy.

  Rebalancing health investment across the life course: a high-value age segments framework for aging societies · 2026 · DOI

• Few studies have explored variations in the SES-mortality gradient within Germany at a highly detailed geographic level. There is a need to analyze subnational variation in the association between SES and mortality among retired men in Germany.

  For Whom Does Place Matter? Regional Variation in the SES-Mortality Gradient Among Retired Men in Germany · 2026 · DOI

• The increasing negative SES-mortality gradient among men in Germany remains a persistent concern (Haan et al. 2020; Wenau et al. 2019). Our paper contributes to this discussion by providing evidence on subnational variation in this gradient. We show that a negative association between SES and mortality exists across all macro-regions and settlement types. This association is almost linear at levels between 1.0 and 1.7 aaPP. At the same time, we document subnational variation in the slope of this negative association between SES and mortality. Unfortunately, data limitations did not allow us to explore the drivers of this pattern. Further research is needed to identify the precise determinants and mechanisms underlying these inequalities, in order to facilitate the accurate targeting of policies aimed at specific regions and SES groups. A productive avenue for future research would involve exploring the potential selection effects that contribute to the more heterogeneous association between SES and mortality at levels below 1.0 aaPP. Another promising direction would be to investigate the heterogeneity among the 12 subregions considered in this study. This could be achieved, for example, by employing multilevel models that account for contextual characteristics (see, e.g. Glaubitz 2026). Within such a framework, the German Index of Deprivation (Michalski et al. 2022) may serve as an important control variable. Overall, our findings demonstrate that there is much to be gained by moving beyond traditional East–West comparisons and by closely examining how the association between SES and mortality varies across macro-regions and settle- ment types in Germany. 24 G. Wenau et al. Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the team at the Research Data Centre of the German Pension Insurance (FDZ-RV) for their valuable support. Reseach funding: Pavel Grigoriev was supported by funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 851485). Use of Large Language Models, AI and Machine Learning Tools: No AI tools were used for data analysis or for generating the scientific content of the paper. AI assistance was employed exclusively for language editing purposes.

  For Whom Does Place Matter? Regional Variation in the SES-Mortality Gradient Among Retired Men in Germany · 2026 · DOI

• The lack of a simple approach to analyze the sensitivity of life insurance premiums to changes in age and interest rates. The lack of understanding of the relationship between demographic and economic factors in premium determination.

  Analisis Sensitivitas Premi Asuransi Jiwa Terhadap Usia dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Berdasarkan Data Life Table dari World Health Organization · 2026 · DOI

• Future research can focus on exploring other numerical methods for solving logistic growth models. Future research can investigate the application of the RKF45 method in other demographic forecasting contexts.

  Comparative Study of Fourth-Order Runge-Kutta and Adaptive Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg (RKF45) Methods for Solving Logistic Population Models · 2026 · DOI

Most-cited papers in Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

• Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 · The Lancet · 2012 · 10,832 citations
• A SIMPLE METHOD OF ESTIMATING FIFTY PER CENT ENDPOINTS12 · American Journal of Epidemiology · 1938 · 6,469 citations
• Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 · The Lancet · 2018 · 6,226 citations
• Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 · The Lancet · 2014 · 5,892 citations
• Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 · The Lancet · 2016 · 5,109 citations
• Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 · The Lancet · 2017 · 3,700 citations
• Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000 · The Lancet · 2012 · 2,977 citations
• Ageing populations: the challenges ahead · The Lancet · 2009 · 2,958 citations
• Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000–15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals · The Lancet · 2016 · 2,830 citations
• Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories · The Lancet · 2018 · 2,456 citations

Most recent work

• Beyond Lowest‐Low Fertility: Why Post‐Transitional Populations Follow Divergent Paths · Population and Development Review · 2026
• Affected by many births, supported by many children? Later-life survival from a life course perspective in three historical populations · The History of the Family · 2026
• A pair model to describe the life expectancy at birth in India · Journal of Population Research · 2026
• The Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity: Insights From the U.S. Health and Retirement Study · Demography · 2026
• How deaths of despair shape life expectancy across sexes and regions in Sweden · Scandinavian Journal of Public Health · 2026
• Investments in health and mortality reduction to address population decline · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026
• Arriaga Meets Kitagawa. Life Expectancy Decomposition With Population Subgroups · Geographical Analysis · 2026
• A Double Decomposition of Standard Deviation Below the Modal Age at Death and the Role of Causes of Death · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · 2026
• Penentuan Cadangan Asuransi Jiwa Last Survivor berdasarkan Metode Gross Premium Valuation (GPV) dengan Hukum De’Moivre · EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL · 2026
• Modeling heterogeneity and serial correlation of non-life insurance policyholders using a GLM–HMM framework · Journal of Applied Statistics · 2026

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